US and Israel Draw Up Plans for Renewed Strikes on Iran After Midterms, Report Says

The United States and Israel have drawn up specific plans for a renewed round of strikes on Iran that could be carried out after the US midterm elections on November 3, The New York Times has reported, citing US officials and other people briefed on the deliberations. The report says the operation would be short but intensive, lasting about three days, and that President Donald Trump has not approved it.

According to the report, the likely targets would include Iran’s nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and missile and drone arsenal. US negotiators are reported to be using the prospect of renewed military action as leverage in talks over Iran’s nuclear programme and control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s negotiators have so far resisted concessions on the nuclear issue, insisting it be deferred until later in the talks.

FAKTA

• The New York Times reports that the US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the November 3 US midterm elections.
• The reported operation would be short but intensive, lasting about three days, with targets including nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and missile and drone arsenals.
• President Donald Trump has not approved an operation, and the report says he has repeatedly vetoed proposals to return to major combat this year, including earlier this month.
• The US military buildup, including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and Special Operations forces, is expected to be fully in place by early November, according to the report.
• Trump has said the US is not negotiating with Iran and that something will happen fairly soon, while Iran has warned of a stronger response to any renewed attack.

The US Israel Iran strike plans in brief

The report says preparations have intensified in recent weeks, with US and Israeli aircraft flying over Iraq to practise strike manoeuvres. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss potential renewed strikes, according to the report. One site reportedly under consideration is Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried nuclear-related facility, and the report says Trump has considered using the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast, known as the “Mother of All Bombs”, against it.

Some US officials cited in the report believe another intensive round of attacks could push Iran’s economy to the brink and force Tehran to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict. The conflict began with US-Israeli attacks on February 28, and although an April 8 ceasefire ended a 40-day war, hostilities have continued sporadically since then. A memorandum of understanding signed in June following Pakistani and Qatari mediation has since stalled, including over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Why the timing points after the midterms

Political considerations feature heavily in the reporting. Trump publicly pledged on October 8 not to attack Iran before Americans vote, and the report says officials see a small chance he could still order a campaign this month, but consider an operation after the midterms more likely. The Financial Times has separately reported that Israel was ready to strike on the weekend of October 10, with targets including power plants and other infrastructure, before Trump stopped it because of the elections, while other reporting has said the military had not been planning a strike on that date.

Axios has also reported that dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets conducted an operational sortie on Monday, flying as far as the vicinity of Iran’s border, about 1,300 kilometres from Israel, on the same day Hegseth met Netanyahu at the Ovda Air Base. That sortie was reported to be unrelated to Hegseth’s visit. The White House has said the administration does not comment on military plans that may or may not exist.

Tehran warns of a stronger response

Iran has warned that it would respond to any renewed military action. According to Iranian state-affiliated media outlet Student News Network, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi said: “The United States has the ‘Mother of All Bombs.’ We will show them the ‘Father of All Bombs,’ and it will definitely be something new for them.” Tehran has not provided details about the weapon or clarified what the threat entails.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told parliament that the country faces a “super-challenge”, saying: “America didn’t think we would stand firm despite the pressure and war, but we stood firm, and we will continue to stand firm.” Sources told Reuters in early October that senior Iranian commanders are reviewing plans for a broader and more forceful response to any renewed large-scale US campaign, potentially expanding targets beyond US-linked assets to countries that support US military operations. Iran’s representative to the United Nations has also alleged that Starlink has been used to identify and target sites in military attacks against Iran.

What remains uncertain

It is far from certain that Trump will approve fresh strikes, the report stresses, noting that he has vetoed several proposals for a return to major combat this year, most recently earlier this month. The report also expresses scepticism that a renewed campaign would be more successful than the first phase of intense strikes between February and April, which it says drove up energy prices and inflation worldwide, eroded security in the Middle East, and severely strained the Pentagon’s supply of missile interceptors.

Speaking to reporters after a rally in South Carolina, Trump said: “No, I think we’re not negotiating… We are going to have something, one way or the other. It’ll happen fairly soon.” He added: “Most people seem to think it’s after the election, and we’re going to see what happens.” He did not specify what action or development he expected, or give a definitive timeline. For now, the plans remain options rather than an approved operation, and the outcome will depend on a decision Trump has repeatedly deferred.

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