OPEC Slashes 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 400,000 BPD

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has sharply downgraded its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2026, cutting its forecast to 400,000 barrels per day — about 71 percent below the 1.4 million bpd it projected at the start of the year. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais announced the revision on Monday at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, saying the adjustment reflects oil consumption that ran weaker than expected throughout the year.

Key Facts

• OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by just 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from its initial forecast of 1.4 million bpd — a cut of roughly 71 percent.
• The revised outlook was announced by Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais on 12 October at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh.
• OPEC expects demand deferred this year to return as pent-up consumption in 2027.
• Al Ghais warned that persistent underinvestment across upstream, midstream and downstream operations leaves refining and transport infrastructure exposed to disruptions.
• He projected global primary energy demand to rise by about 23 percent between now and 2050.

Weaker consumption forces the revision

Al Ghais said the producer group revised its projection to reflect developments in the global oil market during the year, with consumption momentum falling short of the pace OPEC had anticipated in January. The new figure is only slightly above the 380,000 bpd growth estimate the group put forward in September, even though it stands a full million barrels a day below the year-opening forecast.

The outlook for next year is brighter. OPEC anticipates that consumption held back this year will build into stronger demand in 2027, with next year’s expected growth put at around 1.7 million bpd. The International Energy Agency takes an even more pessimistic view of 2026, forecasting a 2.5-million-bpd decline in global consumption this year followed by a 2.6-million-bpd rebound in 2027.

Investment warning and energy security

The OPEC chief used the Riyadh platform to flag what he called deep vulnerabilities across the energy sector. He pointed to years of insufficient investment in production, transportation and processing, arguing that the shortfall is already affecting refining capacity and adding pressure to fuel markets, including diesel and jet fuel.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also addressed the congress, making the case for wider international participation in pipeline ownership and operations as a way to protect critical energy infrastructure.

Markets stay focused on supply risks

On Monday, West Texas Intermediate traded near $93.78 a barrel and Brent crude near $106.80, each up about 2 percent, as fresh Gulf supply fears put shipping security back at the center of the market. Goldman Sachs has estimated that geopolitical risks are currently adding just over $20 a barrel to oil prices.

For oil-dependent economies, the revised forecast adds fresh uncertainty to revenue and budget planning — even as OPEC signals that deferred consumption could yet return. More energy and business coverage is available on Watan News English.