China Crosses a Demographic Turning Point as Seniors Overtake Children

China has crossed a demographic turning point: for the first time, the country counts more people aged 65 and over than children aged 14 and under, according to new official figures that underline how fast the China ageing population is growing.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, reported by state-affiliated media, puts the old-age dependency ratio at 23.1 percent in 2025, ahead of 22 percent for children — more than 223 million people aged 65 and above, against around 213 million children aged 14 and under.

FAKTA

• The crossover: More than 223 million people aged 65 and over, against about 213 million children aged 14 and under
• Dependency ratios in 2025: 23.1 percent for older people, 22 percent for children
• The trend: The old-age ratio rose from 15 percent in 2016 to more than 20 percent in 2021
• Population: China’s population fell for a fourth straight year in 2025, with the birth rate at a record low
• Survey check: A November nationwide sample survey found 15.87 percent aged 65 and over, against 15.25 percent aged 0 to 14
• Working-age share: People aged 15 to 59 made up 61.89 percent of the population, down from 67.33 percent a decade earlier

How China’s ageing population reached this point

The shift is the product of decades. China’s birth rate has been falling for a long time, shaped by the one-child policy in force from 1980 to 2015 and by rapid urbanisation. Households have also shrunk: the average household numbered 2.52 people at the end of last year, against 3.10 a decade earlier.

The old-age ratio climbed steadily, from 15 percent in 2016 to more than 20 percent by 2021, before passing the children’s ratio in 2025. A nationwide sample survey of more than 20 million people reached the same conclusion earlier — the first such crossover in records going back to 1949.

Pressure on pensions, care and growth

The crossover carries practical consequences. With the working-age population shrinking, fewer workers must support more retirees, straining pension payments and social security. Independent demographer He Yafu has warned that the traditional family-based model of caring for older relatives is under immense pressure as families shrink and their older members grow more numerous.

The same squeeze applies to the wider economy: a smaller workforce and a growing retired population raise the cost of health care and elderly support while the population as a whole shrinks.

What Beijing is doing about it

The authorities have responded with a series of measures designed to encourage marriage and childbearing. These include family subsidies, childcare support and reduced childbirth-related medical costs, alongside pledges to make urban life more supportive for young people, children and families.

Whether those steps can reverse a trend built over decades remains open. For now, the figures mark a symbolic moment: a country long associated with a vast young workforce now counts more grandparents than grandchildren. More international news can be found on the Watan News English homepage.