South Carolina Senate Race Becomes a Toss-Up Days Before Election Day

A United States Senate seat in South Carolina that was widely expected to stay safely Republican has become one of the closest races in the final days before the 3 November midterm elections, after a leading poll put the two main candidates level and a major election forecaster moved the contest to a toss-up on 29 October.

Fox News moved its rating of the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” on Thursday, following a New York Times/Siena poll published on 28 October that found Republican Senator Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews tied at 48 percent each among likely voters. The shift was reported the same day that President Donald Trump campaigned for Graham in Rock Hill, South Carolina.

What the polls show

The polls published in the final week do not all point the same way, and they use different samples and dates, so they should not be read as a single result. The New York Times/Siena survey of likely voters put both candidates at 48 percent. It also found Andrews leading among independent voters by 57 percent to 37 percent, according to reporting of the poll.

Other surveys published around the same time gave Graham a lead. A Citadel poll of registered voters released on 28 October put Graham ahead by 43 percent to 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided. A South Carolina Policy Council poll, first reported on 26 October and published the following day, put Graham ahead by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided, based on 895 likely voters or people who had already voted and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.

An East Carolina University poll reported on 29 October put Graham ahead by 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. An average of polls compiled by RealClearPolling on Thursday put Graham ahead by 2.4 points. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball had earlier moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican”.

Why the seat is contested

Graham was appointed to the Senate seat after the death of her brother, former Senator Lindsey Graham, on 11 July 2026. She is seeking a full six-year term. She won the Republican primary on 11 August and a runoff on 25 August against Representative Ralph Norman, after receiving President Trump’s endorsement.

Andrews is a paediatrician from the Charleston area. She previously ran for the House of Representatives in 2022 and announced her Senate candidacy in May 2025, when the seat was still held by Lindsey Graham. USA TODAY reported that Graham, 62, previously led the South Carolina Commission for the Blind, and that Andrews is 45.

The campaigns in the final days

The two campaigns have presented sharply different messages in the closing days, while keeping their focus on voters’ everyday concerns. Graham’s campaign has described Andrews as a liberal candidate whose agenda would not suit South Carolina. Andrews has presented herself as a moderate candidate focused on bringing down costs, fighting corruption and putting South Carolina first, and her campaign has questioned whether Graham has the experience needed for the Senate.

Money and national attention have also moved into the race. USA TODAY reported a large gap in campaign funds, with Graham holding less than $2 million and Andrews holding $24 million. The Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate Republicans’ main campaign arm, spent $5 million in South Carolina in early October, according to reporting of the race.

Trump’s visit to Rock Hill on 29 October was his third visit to South Carolina before Election Day, according to Greenville News. The rally was held at the Rock Hill Sports and Event Center, in an area that voted for a different candidate in the Republican primary. Trump had previously campaigned in Pendleton on 21 October. Reporting of the rally said the president focused his South Carolina visits on three locations Graham did not win in the August primary or runoff, in an effort to unite Republican voters.

Party unity after a contested primary

The primary contest has continued to shape the general election campaign. Norman, who lost the runoff, pledged to support Graham, while questions remained about whether all of his supporters would follow. Attorney General Alan Wilson, the Republican nominee for governor, urged Republicans to unite behind Graham ahead of Election Day. Andrews has meanwhile received support from some Republicans, including former Governor David Beasley, and from Warren Norman, the son of Representative Ralph Norman.

What happens next

South Carolina voters have a few more days to cast ballots early. The early voting period runs through 31 October, with centres open from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. Polls on Election Day, 3 November, will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. The result will not be known until votes are counted, and with several polls showing a close margin, the outcome in a state Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024 is now being treated by forecasters as genuinely uncertain.

FAKTA

• Fox News moved the South Carolina Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” on 29 October 2026.
• A New York Times/Siena poll published on 28 October found Darline Graham and Annie Andrews tied at 48 percent each among likely voters.
• Other polls published in the same week gave Graham leads of one to four points, showing a close but unsettled contest.
• Graham was appointed after the death of former Senator Lindsey Graham on 11 July 2026 and won the Republican primary runoff on 25 August.
• Early voting in South Carolina runs through 31 October; Election Day is 3 November, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Source: reporting by USA TODAY, Greenville News and the Daily Caller, based on the New York Times/Siena, Citadel, South Carolina Policy Council and East Carolina University polls and the Fox News forecast update.